Preview: Zags title run starts in Portland against Georgia State
Finally, after five months of buildup, the Gonzaga Bulldogs will officially begin the push for the program’s first national title when the first round of the NCAA Tournament kicks off on Thursday. As the No. 1 overall seed once again, Mark Few and his bunch are the odds-on favorite to cut down the nets in New Orleans, but no team will be overlooked along the way.
That includes 16-seed Georgia State, one of the hottest teams entering the big dance that some felt were unfairly seeded by the committee.
Under third-year head coach Rob Lanier, the Panthers (18-10) endured a roller coaster of a regular season to get to this point. A solid 4-1 start was followed by nine losses in the next 13 games, including a five-game skid over a month’s span. At 8-10 and winless in league play, the 2021-22 season appeared to be a lost cause.
But with a win over South Alabama in earlier February, the Panthers’ postseason hopes would unexpectedly change for the better, as they rattled off 10 straight victories to win the Sun Belt Conference and punch their ticket to the big dance.
Running the show on offense is senior Corey Allen, a 6-foot-2 guard from Detroit that does most of his damage from the midrange area and beyond. According to hoop-math, over half of his shot attempts came from behind the arc this season, where he shot a respectable 35.5%. While he paces the squad at 14.7 points a game, he shoots a less-than-ideal 37.2% from the floor.
The Panthers’ playmaking comes from senior Kane Williams at 3.8 assists per game. As a steady starter all season, the Georgia-native complements Allen’s game as a penetrator who isn’t afraid of contact. His 167 free throw attempts far and away led GSU, as nearly half of his attempts were spent near the rim.
Offensively, though, there’s not much that jumps off the page with this squad. With an effective field goal rate of 46.5% (323rd nationally), living in the midrange has not bode well for the Panthers, who shot nearly a third of their total attempts from that 15-20 foot range. They knocked down just 32.9% of their 3-pointers on the year and less than 45% of their 2-pointers. KenPom’s metrics had them as the 202nd-ranked offense in the country.
A lackluster attack usually doesn’t equate to much success in the win column, but GSU’s serviceable defense kept it afloat this season.
Despite the lack of height, 6-foot-10 Jalen Thomas and 6-foot-8 Eliel Nsoeme hold down the interior as solid rim protectors. Thomas led the way with 1.7 blocks per game, while Nsoeme recovered from an injury suffered earlier in the season to provide extra support down low. The Panthers rejected 17% of their opponents’ shots inside on the season, 12th-best nationally, and was top-10 in field goal percentage allowed at the rim at just over 50%.
Against Gonzaga’s stud frontcourt, though, that might not matter as much. Both All-Americans are matchup nightmares for opposing defenses, especially with Chet Holmgren’s ability to stretch the floor and handle the rock with ease for a 7-footer. Drew Timme, despite a quiet WCC tournament, proved last season that the big stage is his to take, as he’ll be the vocal point once again this go around. His ability to see the floor through double-teams makes him and his teammates even more of a threat to get into an unbreakable rhythm earlier on.
The game plan isn’t rocket science: go out and play Zags’ basketball.
R.J. Hunter isn’t walking through the Moda Center doors any time soon, which means no heroics for the Panthers this year.
The pick: Zags 91, Panthers 67
